Page 45 - Arvind 2024

The US Federal Reserve approved a much-anticipated interest rate hike that took the benchmark borrowing costs to their highest in more than 22 years.
The volume of world merchandise trade is expected to increase
by 2.6% in 2024 and 3.3% in
2025 after falling 1.2% in 2023. However, significant risks are on the horizon, including regional conflicts, geopolitical tensions, and economic policy uncertainties, all of which could have a considerable impact on this projection. In terms of value, the merchandise exports experienced a more pronounced decline, dropping by 5% to USD 24.01 Trn. Conversely, there was a more positive trend in commercial services exports, which increased by 9% to USD 7.54 Trn, partially offsetting the downturn in goods trade. The cost of Brent crude
oil averaged USD 83 per barrel
in 2023, down from USD 101 per barrel in 2022, with crude oil from Russia finding destinations outside the European Union and global crude oil demand falling short of expectations.
Global equity markets ended 2023 on a high note, with major global equity benchmarks delivering double-digit returns. This outperformance was led by a decline in global inflation, slide in the dollar index, declining crude and higher expectations of rate
Regional growth (%)
World output
Advanced economies
Emerging and developing economies
(Source: UNCTAD, IMF)
Corporate Overview
Statutory Reports Financial Statements
cuts by the US Fed and other Central banks.
Outlook: Asia is expected to continue to account for the bulk of global growth in FY24-25. Inflation is expected to ease gradually as cost pressures moderate; headline inflation in G20 countries is expected to decline. The global economy has demonstrated resilience amid high inflation and monetary tightening, growth around previous levels for the next two years
(Source: World Bank).
2024 2023 3.1 3.5
1.6 2.5
4.3 3.8
Performance of major economies, 2023
(Source: PWC report, EY report, IMF data, OECD data, Livemint)
United States: Reported GDP growth of 2.5% in 2023 compared to 1.9% in 2022
China: GDP growth was 5.2% in 2023 compared to 3% in 2022
United Kingdom: GDP grew by 0.4% in 2023 compared to 4.3% in 2022
Japan: GDP grew 1.9% in 2023 unchanged from a preliminary 1.9% in 2022
Germany: GDP contracted by 0.3% in 2023 compared to 1.8% in 2022
Indian economy
Overview: The Indian economy was estimated to grow 7.8% in the 2023-24 fiscal against 7.2%
in FY22-23 mainly on account
of the improved performance
in the mining and quarrying, manufacturing and certain segments of the services sector. India retained its position as the fifth largest economy. As per the IMF, India is likely to become the third-largest economy in 2027 (in USD at market exchange rate) and it also estimated that India’s contribution to global growth will rise by 200 basis points in 5 years
In FY23-24, the CPI inflation averaged 5.4% with rural inflation
exceeding urban inflation. Lower production and erratic weather led to a spike in food inflation. In contrast, core inflation averaged at 4.5%, a sharp decline from 6.2% in FY22-23. The softening of global commodity prices led to a moderation in core inflation.
The nation’s foreign exchange reserves achieved a historic milestone, reaching USD 648.5
Bn as on April 5, 2024. The credit quality of Indian companies remained strong between October 2023 and March 2024 following deleveraged Balance Sheets, sustained domestic demand
and government-led capital expenditure. Rating upgrades
continued to surpass rating downgrades in H2 FY23-24. UPI transactions in India posted a record 56% rise in volume and 43% rise in value in FY23-24.
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