Page 46 - Arvind 2024

Growth of the Indian economy
FY21
FY22
8.7
8.1
FY23 FY24
Real GDP growth (%) -6.6%
E: Estimated
Growth of the Indian economy quarter by quarter, FY23-24
Real GDP growth (%) 8.2
(Source: Budget FY23-24; Economy Projections, RBI projections, Deccan Herald)
7.2
8.4
7.8 E
8 E
Q1FY24
Q2FY24
Q3FY24
Q4FY24E
As per the first advance estimates of national income released by the National Statistical Office (NSO), the manufacturing sector output was estimated to grow 6.5% in FY23-24 compared to 1.3% in FY22-23. The Indian mining sector growth was estimated at 8.1%
in FY23-24 compared to 4.1% in FY22-23. Financial services, real estate and professional services were estimated to record a growth of 8.9% in FY23-24 compared to 7.1% in FY22-23.
Real GDP or GDP at constant prices in FY23-24 was estimated at Rs. 171.79 Lac Cr as against
the provisional GDP estimate of FY22-23 of Rs. 160.06 Lac Cr (released on May 31, 2023). Growth in real GDP during FY23-24 was estimated at 7.3% compared to 7.2% in FY22-23. Nominal GDP or GDP at current prices in FY23-24 was estimated at Rs. 296.58 Lac Cr against the provisional FY22-23 GDP estimate of Rs. 272.41 Lac Cr. The gross non-performing asset ratio for scheduled commercial banks dropped to 3.2% as of September 2023, following a decline from 3.9% at the end of March 2023.
India’s exports of goods and services were expected touch USD 900 Bn in FY23-24 compared
to USD 770 Bn in the previous year despite global headwinds. Merchandise exports were expected to expand between
USD 495 Bn and USD 500 Bn, while services exports were expected to touch USD 400 Bn during the year. India’s net direct tax collection increased 19% to
Rs. 14.71 Lac Cr by January 2024.
The gross collection was 24.58% higher than the gross collection for the corresponding period of the previous year. Gross GST collection of Rs. 20.2 Lac Cr represented an 11.7% increase; average monthly collection was Rs. 1,68,000 Cr, surpassing the previous year’s average of Rs. 1,50,000 Cr.
India’s monsoon for 2023 hit a five-year low. August was the driest month in a century. From June to September, the country received only 94% of its long-term average rainfall. The agriculture sector was expected to see a growth of 1.8% in FY23-24, lower than the 4% expansion recorded in FY22-23. Trade, hotel, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting segment are estimated to grow at 6.3% in FY23-24, a contraction from 14% in FY22-23. The Indian automobile segment was expected to close FY23-24 with a growth of 6-9%, despite global supply chain disruptions and rising ownership costs.
The construction sector was expected to grow 10.7% year-on- year from 10% in FY22-23. Public administration, defence and other services were estimated to grow by 7.7% in FY23-24 compared to 7.2% in FY22-23. The growth in gross value added (GVA) at basic prices was pegged at 6.9%, down from 7% in FY22-23.
India reached a pivotal phase
in its S-curve, characterised by acceleration in urbanisation, industrialisation, household incomes and energy consumption. India emerged as the fifth largest economy with a GDP of USD 3.6
Trn and nominal per capita income of INR 123,945 in FY23-24.
India’s Nifty 50 index grew 30% in FY23-24 and India’s stock market emerged as the world’s fourth largest with a market capitalisation of USD 4 Trn. Foreign investment in Indian government bonds jumped in the last three months of 2023. India was ranked 63 among 190 economies in the ease of doing business, according to the latest World Bank annual ratings. India’s unemployment declined to a low of 3.2% in 2023 from 6.1% in 2018.
Outlook: India withstood global headwinds in 2023 and is likely to remain the world’s fastest-growing major economy on the back
of growing demand, moderate inflation, stable interest rates and robust foreign exchange reserves. The Indian economy is anticipated to surpass USD 4 Trn in FY24-25.
Union Budget FY24-25: The Interim Union Budget 2024-
25 retained its focus on capital expenditure spending, comprising investments in infrastructure, solar energy, tourism, medical ecosystem and technology. In FY24-25, the top 13 ministries in terms of allocations accounted for 54% of the estimated total expenditure. Of these, the Ministry of Defence reported the highest allocation at Rs. 6,21,541 Cr, accounting for 13% of the
total budgeted expenditure of the central government. Other ministries with high allocation included Road transport and highways (5.8%), Railways (5.4%) and Consumer Affairs, food and public distribution (4.5%).
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